The war in Gaza has made another dramatic shift after Yemen’s Houthi movement made a threat in its strongest yet: if Israel continues to block aid from being delivered into Gaza for the next four days, they will launch their Red Sea and broader naval attacks again. The Iran-aligned group, controlling the majority of Yemen, had already attacked vessels in the Red Sea as part of their broader campaign to resist Israel and Israel’s allies.
This new threat also risks increased tensions in the region, threatening further intervention in international maritime trade and the entry of additional players onto the global stage. While the humanitarian crisis in Gaza already has worsened with acute shortages of foodstuffs, medicines, and other staple goods, much is at stake in the aftermath.
The Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, have taken the position as a staunch pro-Palestine group. Since Israel declared war on Gaza on October 7 in reaction to the October 7 attack by Hamas, the Houthis have struck back at Israel using missiles and drones and struck back at Red Sea merchant ships that they deem connected to Israel.
In December 2023, the Houthis stepped up their campaign by attacking several vessels in the Red Sea, leading international shipping firms to reroute their ships away from the perilous waters. This increased shipping costs and longer trade routes, further stressing an already taut global supply chain. The United States, with the support of allies such as the United Kingdom and France, launched Operation Prosperity Guardian, a multi-national operation aimed at securing the Red Sea and repelling Houthi threats.
Despite international pressure and military intervention, the Houthis have continued their attacks intermittently. Their latest statement suggests that unless Israel lifts its blockade of Gaza, they are prepared to resume mass naval warfare. This statement suggests a fresh wave of instability in the region, with implications reaching far beyond the direct Gaza war.
The rationale behind the threats by the Houthis is the serious humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Reports from United Nations and humanitarian organizations have outlined how Israel’s closures of humanitarian aid had created a worsening crisis with famine-like features on the ground in parts of the enclave.
As Israel intensifies its military retaliation against the Hamas-led attack on the Israeli troops that murdered an estimated 1,200 Israelis, humanitarian agencies have been unable to distribute relief supplies among the two million-odd Gaza inhabitants. Much of the borders into Gaza remain under extremely strict Israeli control, and not much more than limited amounts of aid are allowed to enter. International pressure in the form of United Nations demands and those of various world leaders has compelled Israel to ease restrictions, yet until now, the blockade is largely intact.
Houthis claim that their acts are warranted to force Israel’s hand. They claim that attacking commercial and military vessels with ties to Israel is an easy means of exerting pressure on them with the aim of forcing a policy change on Gaza.
If the Houthis follow through on their threat, its impact will be global. The Red Sea is among the world’s busiest seafaring commerce arteries, connecting Asia and Europe via the Suez Canal. Any further disruption could lead to astronomical shipping charges, late delivery of merchandise, and increased fuel costs. This could further have catastrophic effects on global economies already struggling with inflation and supply chain problems.
Big shipping companies such as Maersk and MSC have previously steered vessels around the southern tip of Africa to avoid Houthi attacks, doubling the time of transit and cost. Should full-scale Houthi attacks return, businesses would be forced to implement more precautionary actions at the expense of consumers’ increased costs around the world.
In addition, the United States and its allies have indicated that they will act decisively against any attack on international shipping. The U.S. military has already launched airstrikes against Houthi forces in Yemen, and a new Houthi campaign would likely result in additional military clashes. This would likely involve Iran in a more direct conflict, as Tehran is supporting the Houthis, increasing tensions in the already unstable Middle East.
So far, Israel has stood firm, insisting that humanitarian aid must be tightly controlled so that supplies cannot be diverted to Hamas. The Israeli government argues that Hamas fighters have previously routed humanitarian aid into the military effort, so close controls are indispensable. But in the face of mounting pressure globally, including pressures from the U.S. and Europe to loosen the blockade, Israel may need to reconsider its stance.
The United Nations and other international organizations have deplored ongoing withholding of the aid. Urges for a immediate ceasefire in order to ensure unbroken access of humanitarian supplies to Gaza are also being demanded more and more. But in the absence of any solution in sight, the situation remains recklessly unstable.
With the Houthis giving Israel four days to comply, the coming days will be crucial. If Israel maintains its position on the blockade, Houthi attacks could return, precipitating a broader regional crisis. Or if Israel opens up more aid to Gaza, it may lower the immediate risk of escalation but invite internal political backlash from hardline parties opposed to concessions.
Meanwhile, foreign powers are likely to attempt to de-escalate tensions through diplomatic efforts, particularly the U.S., Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. But as Gaza becomes increasingly dire and the Houthis determined to assert their power, a peaceful resolution is unlikely.
For now, the world watches as the Middle East inched closer to another potential flashpoint. Through diplomacy or force of arms, how Israel, the Houthis, and outside powers navigate the next few days will determine the course of the Gaza war as well as broader regional stability.
Yemen’s Houthis Warn of Renewed Naval Attacks if Israel Continues Gaza Blockade.
